Emergent Misbehavior

Murphy'’s Law has been revered for decades as the only law to hold across diverse domains. The law states : "anything that can go wrong, will”. This article tries to find a scientific basis for this widespread existence of Murphy'’s Law and ponders on the implications of its findings.

Let us begin our analytical journey with Theory of Complex Systems. Complex systems are those in which global properties and behavior cannot be fully explained by an understanding of its component parts.Typically, the behavior of such systems is non-linear, arising from the interactions of a large number of simple processes. Due to their non-linearity, superposition doesn't apply, and thus they are literally more than the sum of their parts.

An important feature of these systems is that they are decentralized. There is no central controlling agency. The global properties that develop in them, do so, seemingly out of the blue. The resulting behavior if interesting, is also unpredictable. In a sense, these systems seem to defy the second law of thermodynamics – entropy, which states that the amount of disorder in the universe must increase.

Often, complexity arises in systems that are composed of interacting simpler systems. The simplest example of such a compositional system is a Cellular Automaton. A Cellular Automaton is a regular, n-dimensional grid composed of simple, identical, spatially interacting cells. Each of these cells is a finite state automaton, whose future state depends solely on its current state and that of its neighboring cells. Conway's Game of Life is a popular application of Cellular automata.

It is often awe-inspiring to see different configurations of these cellular automata evolve in time. With exceedingly simple rules for state transition (the Game of Life operates on just four rules), one can see beautiful and complex patterns develop. It almost seems like the grid has come to life (pun intended). The problem is, that given this behavior, it is extremely difficult to guess what the state-transition rules originally were.

The behavior of cellular automata have been classified into 4 classes by Stephen Wolfram -- Steady state, Oscillatory, Chaotic and Emergent Structure. In the Steady state, the system converges to a fixed state in a short time. Oscillatory systems develop periodic cycles, which then repeat forever. These are both system types where the behavior is '‘simple'’, or even uninteresting. The outcomes of both these systems can be predicted easily. Chaotic Systems in contrast seem to be delinquents of the automata world. Chaotic behavior is characterized by random, aperiodic and unpredictable patterns.

The 'Emergent-structure' class of systems develops unstable, but computationally rich patterns. Fractals like the Sierpinski triangle, gasket, and carpet are commonly observed. Patterns that are often seen in nature are also observed. Wolfram suspects that complexity in nature may be due to similar mechanisms. These, by far, have been regarded by everyone as the most interesting kinds of cellular automata. It is spine-tingling to see such simple rules create such complex behavior. This phenomenon is called Emergent Behavior.

Many complex systems show emergent structure. Ant and termite colonies, flocking behavior in birds, collaborative efforts like Linux and Wikkipedia, bit-torrent swarms, etc. Life itself can be thought of as an emergent property of the thermal, chemical, physical, electrical and mechanical properties of the new-born earth. Some believe that intelligence and consciousness too is emergent behavior.

It is a fine line that separates the dead (steady, oscillatory) from the unstable (chaotic). Emergent behavior appears at this boundary, termed as the edge of chaos. This line, though seemingly fine, may not be that fine after all. Emergent behavior appears all around us, all the time. Having a high affinity towards the edge of chaos, these systems are robust and self-organizing. Self-organization seems to be an emergent property of systems that contain positive and negative feedback, multiple interactions and a balance between exploration and exploitation. How exactly such self-organizing systems function is not yet known to science.

In this universe, there are emergent phenomena that are inherently destructive. One such destructive phenomenon in the limelight these days is Hurricane Wilma. Hurricanes are emergent properties of small disturbances in climatic conditions. Similarly, cancer is a destructive emergent property, of small mutations in cells that accumulate over time, interact in strange ways, resulting in a robust tumor that just won't quit growing. Epidemics, sepsis, forest fires, stock market crashes, national power failure and computer viruses have a similar modus-operandi. Small initial deployments avalanche into a rapid spreading, debilitating catastrophe. The butterfly effect and even the feared "Burrito effect" are all examples of such emergent misbehavior.

These emergent misbehaviors cause other systems they interact with, to fall into Chaos, causing all hell to break loose. This is the domain where Murphy rules all-powerful. Misbehaving emergent systems cause an increase in the entropy in the universe. In a sense, Murphy'’s Law ensures that there cannot be too much of a good thing. Entropy is conserved.

Misbehavior is inherently unpredictable in time, place, manner and intensity. Identifying the cause, given the chaotic symptoms is often horribly difficult, making their prediction and prevention virtually impossible. The burning question remains "What are the rules that cause the observed complexity?". There are many researchers currently engaged in trying to find an answer.

Since entropy is conserved, there will always be a balance between good and evil, order and disorder, behavior and misbehavior. Ever wonder why we constantly encounter Murphy? Why he has us covered whichever way we turn? The answer is simple: life itself is emergent-good-behavior, and the number of just the prokaryotes on Earth is a gargantuan 5 x 10³⁰! The ratio of the number of humans (a measly 6 x 10⁹⁾ to the total number of life forms on Earth is thus negligible.

Given the humongous amount of good-behavior, the amount of misbehavior will be equally humongous. Ergo, the probability, that us humans, will encounter Murphy, is astonishingly high. Murphy's Law can now be safely reworded to say "Everything (in the asymptotic limit) that can misbehave, will". Bottom line: there is nothing one can do about it, so don't sweat the yocto (10^-24) or the yotta (10²⁴) stuff.

--Sandeep Ranade